Second place

[Disco Stu]

After a few comments on here about needing to finish second to get home advantage and quite a few of us wondering how we are second, it got me thinking is the 'best of the rest' really that bad.

Well let's start with our current points per game (PPG) of 1.85. That is the second lowest of all the runners up in this division since the National South began in 2004/2005. Only three teams, all with 1.79 PPG recorded a lower rate.

However, seeing as we achieved the highest PPG of the sides that didn't win the playoffs (2.05 in 2018), if we win this year I'm calling that karma, especially as we lost the title on goal difference five years ago (sorry for reminding you!).

So how important is 2nd place really? After our high points tally in 2018, Braintree went up after finishing sixth. However, out of the 17 finished seasons nine teams won the playoffs after finishing runners up, that's 52%.

[Spike]

Interesting stuff, and the little table at the bottom is the most telling. History suggests that the team finishing second are more likely to get promoted than any one of the other 5 teams put together. If we didn't know it already, having to play just two games rather than three, and both at home, is a massive advantage. We've been there all season so it is vital we don't let slip now.

[terrydfc]

personnaly i always put it down to the fact does the team really want to get promoted
unless the club has the funding to compete in a tough higher division.
when dartford went up last time we all enjoyed a brilliant 1st season but couldnt build on it.
then 2 torrid relegation seasons
personnaly yes id love to see the darts get promoted but would hate to see us have a torrid season and lose fans during that season and rely on the away fans to boost the coffers

[Jonty]

With the possibility of Yeovil, Torquay, M@id$ton£, Aldershot or Southend coming down, I think we should go for it. What have we got to lose? If the likes of Wealdstone, Maidenhead, Dorking can make a go of it, then why can't we. Plus, there would still be some good local games, most notably, £bb$fl££t, Dagenham & Bromley.

[PeteSamson]

Well done indeed on producing that chart Stu!

Agree with what you say Jonty. Just to correct you on Southend cos they have taken themselves up to fringes of the playoffs and are well clear of the relegation zone.

Personally, I can't believe that it is likely that four ex Football League clubs look like tumbling into the National League divisional leagues. That must be a first!

Certainly it is going to be a challenge up in the National if we do manage to make it up. And Dowse has good experience at managing at that level. It could well end up as the playing of a division within a division with the full time and part time clubs. There are also several other teams who have managed to stay the course such as Althincham, Maidenhead along with Bromley.

To be fair, whichever of the playoff teams who get promoted are going to face a tough season, and a lot of attractive fixtures too.

COYD

[Jonty]

Agree with what you say Jonty. Just to correct you on Southend cos they have taken themselves up to fringes of the playoffs and are well clear of the relegation zone.

They are in a real mess Pete, they have unpaid staff and other outstanding debts. There is talk of a big points deduction or demotion.

[KentC]

After a few comments on here about needing to finish second to get home advantage and quite a few of us wondering how we are second, it got me thinking is the 'best of the rest' really that bad.

Well let's start with our current points per game (PPG) of 1.85. That is the second lowest of all the runners up in this division since the National South began in 2004/2005. Only three teams, all with 1.79 PPG recorded a lower rate.

However, seeing as we achieved the highest PPG of the sides that didn't win the playoffs (2.05 in 2018), if we win this year I'm calling that karma, especially as we lost the title on goal difference five years ago (sorry for reminding you!).

So how important is 2nd place really? After our high points tally in 2018, Braintree went up after finishing sixth. However, out of the 17 finished seasons nine teams won the playoffs after finishing runners up, that's 52%.

Second place is massive and is an absolute advantage.
Spin that round and playing away from home is a massive disadvantage as at the moment we’re shite away from home.

That said your stats are very impressive and very interesting.

[DA Mikey]

It kills me a bit when I hear people saying we shouldn’t go up. There are a few out there. Eight seasons is quite a long time to remain in any one division and while we wouldn’t cope at all well with the current squad, changes would be rolled in an attempt to equip the team as best as possible for the onslaught of the NLP.
Survival would of course be a success and we would be losing and drawing a lot more games, however the wins become more memorable - those who travel will surely recall wins at Grimsby, Luton, Wrexham, Cambridge and Stockport as well as huge home victories over Mansfield (under the lights, on t’telly), Newport County, Wrexham, Luton and Gateshead - more so than the rotten run of ten consecutive losses. Plus, we also get another crack at scoring up at Gateshead too.

I don’t hate the National South, it’s quite an enjoyable division to be honest, but we can’t just be aiming to win it every year. That’s planning for stasis.

[PeteSamson]

They are in a real mess Pete, they have unpaid staff and other outstanding debts. There is talk of a big points deduction or demotion.

Wasn't aware of the possible points deduction or demotion, John. I was aware of some of their other problems at the beginning of the season and one has to feel sorry for the players, who have done well in the circumstances. and the supporters too. That's local knowledge for you!!

[Spike]

It kills me a bit when I hear people saying we shouldn’t go up. There are a few out there. Eight seasons is quite a long time to remain in any one division and while we wouldn’t cope at all well with the current squad, changes would be rolled in an attempt to equip the team as best as possible for the onslaught of the NLP.
Survival would of course be a success and we would be losing and drawing a lot more games, however the wins become more memorable - those who travel will surely recall wins at Grimsby, Luton, Wrexham, Cambridge and Stockport as well as huge home victories over Mansfield (under the lights, on t’telly), Newport County, Wrexham, Luton and Gateshead - more so than the rotten run of ten consecutive losses. Plus, we also get another crack at scoring up at Gateshead too.

I don’t hate the National South, it’s quite an enjoyable division to be honest, but we can’t just be aiming to win it every year. That’s planning for stasis.

You and me both Mikey. I just can't get my head around the idea of "fans" not wanting their club to get promoted for fear of failure. In my view it defeats the whole purpose of competitive sport. If you're not going to push to see how far you can go then why bother playing at all. You might as well dismantle the goals and let the two teams just kick the ball back and forth for 90 minutes. What is there to be frightened of? There is no danger involved in going up if you simply spend what you can afford and see how far it takes you. If we survive then great, if we fall then we dust ourselves off and have another go. I always start each season dreaming that this year may be a big one and maybe we'll have our moment in the sun. It saddens me that some people would prefer just to amble along, stagnating in mid-table. However you choose to camouflage it, you have to lose matches to avoid success so those wishing to remain in the same division MUST at some point want their own team to lose. Personally I find that shameful. If I ever believed that the club lacked the ambition to get promoted then I would do everything in my power to campaign for the removal of every board member with that belief. The idea that going up and coming down again would lose supporters and harm the club is a short-sighted one as I believe the long term consequences of the club having no ambition would result in a much larger exodus. Thankfully, and despite some idiotic and unfounded accusations to the contrary, I know that our board are doing everything in their power to get this club promoted. The thing is, despite what many people seem to think, it isn't easy.

[Park Life]

What Spike said....

[KentC]

It kills me a bit when I hear people saying we shouldn’t go up. There are a few out there. Eight seasons is quite a long time to remain in any one division and while we wouldn’t cope at all well with the current squad, changes would be rolled in an attempt to equip the team as best as possible for the onslaught of the NLP.
Survival would of course be a success and we would be losing and drawing a lot more games, however the wins become more memorable - those who travel will surely recall wins at Grimsby, Luton, Wrexham, Cambridge and Stockport as well as huge home victories over Mansfield (under the lights, on t’telly), Newport County, Wrexham, Luton and Gateshead - more so than the rotten run of ten consecutive losses. Plus, we also get another crack at scoring up at Gateshead too.

I don’t hate the National South, it’s quite an enjoyable division to be honest, but we can’t just be aiming to win it every year. That’s planning for stasis.

Thankfully, and despite some idiotic and unfounded accusations to the contrary, I know that our board are doing everything in their power to get this club promoted. The thing is, despite what many people seem to think, it isn't easy.

I’m not a snowflake sensitive soul but I hope you don’t mean me Spike

[Hitchin Dart79]

Agree so much with this and with the greatest of respect to cheshunt (great bar and friendly people) but would I rather see them next year or Chesterfield?. Plus want Boxing Day and NYD to be ebbsfleet and not Bus Stop United! No brainer we need to go up and what happens happens let’s worry about that when/if we get there!

[Spike]

Thankfully, and despite some idiotic and unfounded accusations to the contrary, I know that our board are doing everything in their power to get this club promoted. The thing is, despite what many people seem to think, it isn't easy.

I’m not a snowflake sensitive soul but I hope you don’t mean me Spike

To be honest, the main recurring culprit that I had in mind was Reg and his myriad of alter egos as he is frequently popping up on various forms of social media, consistently bad mouthing certain people at the club. He's a nice guy face to face, but some of the lies he spouts are defamatory and very probably leave him vulnerable to prosecution should the individuals concerned ever take action. That said, there have been others who have alluded to the notion that we have deliberately lost play-off matches in the past. This is an insult to the integrity of the board, the players and everyone associated to the club. I wasn't aware you had made such accusations, did I miss them?

[KentC]

Thankfully, and despite some idiotic and unfounded accusations to the contrary, I know that our board are doing everything in their power to get this club promoted. The thing is, despite what many people seem to think, it isn't easy.

I’m not a snowflake sensitive soul but I hope you don’t mean me Spike

To be honest, the main recurring culprit that I had in mind was Reg and his myriad of alter egos as he is frequently popping up on various forms of social media, consistently bad mouthing certain people at the club. He's a nice guy face to face, but some of the lies he spouts are defamatory and very probably leave him vulnerable to prosecution should the individuals concerned ever take action. That said, there have been others who have alluded to the notion that we have deliberately lost play-off matches in the past. This is an insult to the integrity of the board, the players and everyone associated to the club. I wasn't aware you had made such accusations, did I miss them?

Tbf a few weeks I have hinted at my concern (but not loosing games etc just not overly concerned) without accusations but you put me right and that was enough for me

[Mark Sweet]

Hard not to feel after tonight's result that 2nd is slipping away. With our current form I'm not sure where 2 wins will come from, and even that may not be enough.

[Ken Shabby]

Second place would be a huge advantage to us. After beating Tonbridge, it's well within our grasp (although I fear to write tha with a trip to Concord tomorrow). But after that, for me the key to the play offs is form. I've seen Charlton go up in play offs twice, and both times, they had a reasonable season and then went on a real run of fine form going into the play offs. As a counterbalance, in 2018, they got a play off place guaranteed in the penultimate game, rested a few players and were swiftly eliminated by a workmanlike Shrewsbury.
My point being that what I fear now is that with a few league games remaining, the manager might indulge in resting players prior to our play off commencement, and I would like to see us settle the team, win all the remaining games and go into the play offs on fire. Confidence is a big factor in football, and if we finish second, we will have a rest while the teams below us are battling it out. Lets go in winning.